At the center of this recovery is industrial real estate.

While other asset classes are still working through structural or financing headwinds, industrial properties across Orange County continue to attract capital, users, and long-term investors who view this sector as essential infrastructure to the regional economy.

At Johnston Pacific, we’re seeing this play out daily through increased listing activity, more buyer inquiries, and stronger leasing conversations across light industrial, flex, and distribution properties throughout the county.

Why Orange County Industrial Real Estate Continues to Gain Momentum in 2026

Several market forces that began driving investment in 2025 have carried forward — and in some cases strengthened — into 2026.

Transaction Volume Has Continued to Improve

The re-entry of buyers and sellers into the market last year has translated into more consistent deal flow in early 2026. With interest rates finding a more predictable range and lenders showing greater comfort with stabilized industrial assets, deal velocity has improved.

For owners, this means liquidity has returned. Assets that may have sat through 2024 due to bid-ask gaps are now trading as expectations align.

Demand Drivers Remain Structural, Not Cyclical

Industrial real estate in Orange County is supported by long-term trends that extend well beyond market cycles:

• E-commerce and omni-channel logistics still require infill warehouse space near dense population centers
• Nearshoring and supply chain redundancy favor Southern California logistics hubs
• Last-mile distribution needs continue to prioritize proximity over price
• Small-bay and mid-bay spaces remain highly functional for local businesses, contractors, and service users

These are not temporary trends — they are operational realities for tenants that directly support occupancy and rent stability.

Local Fundamentals Are Stabilizing in a Healthy Range

Vacancy has risen from the historic lows of the pandemic boom, but it has stabilized at levels still considered tight by national standards. At the same time, rent growth has moderated into a sustainable range rather than the rapid spikes seen in prior years.

For investors, this is ideal: predictability has replaced volatility.

How Industrial Is Separating Itself from Other CRE Sectors

In 2026, the contrast between industrial and other asset classes is clearer than ever:

• Office continues to face long-term occupancy questions and adaptive reuse discussions
• Retail shows strength in select categories but remains tenant-specific and location-sensitive
• Multifamily is impacted by construction costs, rent control considerations, and tighter development financing

Industrial, by comparison, offers:

• Functional necessity to tenants
• Predictable operating performance
• Lower management intensity
• Strong appeal to both private and institutional investors seeking stability in uncertain rate environments

This is why industrial is often the first sector to recover and the last to soften during market transitions.

What This Means for Investors and Owners in 2026

Pricing Clarity Has Improved

One of the biggest barriers to transactions in 2023–2024 was uncertainty around value. That has largely dissipated. Comparable sales, lender guidance, and buyer expectations are now far more aligned.

This is allowing deals to get done without the prolonged negotiation cycles seen in prior years.

Investor Confidence Is Expanding

Private investors, 1031 exchange buyers, and small funds are actively pursuing Orange County industrial again. Many recognize that pricing today reflects a more rational basis than the peak years, creating attractive long-term entry points.

Niche Industrial Categories Are Attracting Attention

We’re also seeing increased interest in:

• Outdoor storage
• Contractor yards
• Small-bay multi-tenant buildings
• Functional older buildings in prime infill locations suitable for repositioning

These assets often offer higher yield potential with strong tenant stickiness.

How Johnston Pacific Helps Clients Navigate This Market

In a market that has moved from uncertainty to opportunity, strategy matters more than ever.

Market Intelligence & Accurate Valuation

We provide owners with real-time insight into what buyers are actually paying — not just what listings are asking — allowing for precise pricing and positioning.

Transaction Advisory Across Sales and Leasing

From 2,000 SF light industrial condos to 40,000+ SF distribution buildings, we guide clients through acquisitions, dispositions, and leasing with a focus on aligning real estate decisions with operational and investment goals.

Strategic Positioning for Maximum Value

Today’s industrial performance is about access, usability, and tenant demand. We help owners evaluate how their property fits into current tenant requirements and investor expectations.

Key Takeaways for Industrial Stakeholders in Orange County

• Transaction activity that returned in 2025 has carried into 2026 with greater consistency
• Industrial continues to lead all CRE sectors in investor interest and deal flow
• Pricing clarity and lender stability are enabling more transactions
• Vacancy and rent growth have normalized into a healthy, sustainable range
• Well-located, functional industrial properties remain highly sought after

Conclusion: Industrial Remains the Cornerstone of Orange County CRE

As the broader commercial real estate market continues to recalibrate, industrial property stands out as the sector defined by utility, durability, and long-term demand.

For owners, this is a window where liquidity, pricing clarity, and investor appetite align.

For investors and occupiers, this is an environment where strategic decisions made today can pay dividends for years to come.

If you’re evaluating a sale, acquisition, lease, or portfolio strategy, Johnston Pacific can help you capitalize on the opportunities emerging in 2026.

Ready to Plan Your Next Move?

Whether you’re:

• Exploring an industrial acquisition
• Considering selling a property
• Weighing leasing vs. owning
• Or seeking an updated valuation of your asset

Let’s talk strategy. 949-366-2020

We’re doing something new in the second half of 2026! Starting in May of this year, we started sending out letters celebrating the anniversary of your building purchase, our team at Johnston Pacific Commercial Real Estate prepares something that often generates surprised phone calls.

Not because there’s a problem.

Because many owners have no idea how much their property has increased in value.

If you’ve recently received one of our Property Value Growth reports, you know exactly what we’re talking about. The report compares what you paid for your building to its estimated value in today’s market and illustrates the growth your investment has experienced since purchase.

Some owners see a modest increase.

Others discover they’ve accumulated hundreds of thousands, or even millions, of dollars in additional equity.

And almost all of them ask the same question:

“Is my building really worth that much?”

Commercial Real Estate Is Often the Largest Asset You Own

Many business owners closely monitor their bank accounts, retirement plans, investment portfolios, and operating expenses.

Yet surprisingly few track the value of the building they own.

That can be a costly oversight.

For many owner-users and investors, commercial real estate represents one of the largest assets on their balance sheet. Unlike stocks, however, there isn’t a ticker symbol flashing across a screen every day telling you what your property is worth.

As a result, years can pass without an owner having a clear understanding of how their investment has performed.

That’s exactly why we created our annual Property Value Growth reports.

The Results Often Surprise Owners

We’ve seen countless examples throughout South Orange County where property values have significantly outperformed owners’ expectations.

A building purchased five years ago may have appreciated by 40%, 60%, or even more depending on location, property type, and market conditions.

In some cases, owners who purchased industrial properties only a few years ago are sitting on substantial equity gains that they never anticipated.

Many are shocked to learn that the wealth created by their building has exceeded the returns generated by other investments they actively monitor every month.

The reality is that commercial real estate has quietly created significant wealth for many South Orange County property owners over the past decade.

Why Have Values Increased?

Several factors continue to support property values throughout the region.

Limited Supply

One of the biggest drivers of appreciation is simple economics.

There are only so many industrial and commercial buildings available, particularly in South Orange County. With limited land available for new development, existing properties continue to benefit from constrained supply.

Strong Business Demand

Companies still need space to operate, manufacture, distribute products, and serve customers.

Well-located commercial properties remain highly desirable, creating competition among both users and investors.

Rising Construction Costs

The cost of building new commercial buildings continues to rise.

Land acquisition, labor, materials, permitting, and development fees have all increased substantially over the past several years. As replacement costs rise, existing buildings often become more valuable.

Increasing Rental Rates

Strong rental growth has also contributed to higher values.

Whether an owner occupies the building themselves or leases it to tenants, rising rental rates help support higher valuations throughout the market.

Why Knowing Your Value Matters

Many property owners assume valuation only matters when they decide to sell.

In reality, understanding your property’s current value can help guide numerous business decisions.

It may influence:

• Refinancing opportunities
• Estate planning strategies
• Partnership decisions
• Future acquisitions
• 1031 exchange planning
• Expansion plans
• Retirement planning

Even if you have no intention of selling, understanding the current value of your real estate helps you make better long-term decisions.

The Cost of Not Knowing

One of the biggest mistakes we see is owners operating on outdated information.

An owner who believes their property is worth what it was worth five years ago may miss opportunities to leverage equity, refinance advantageously, acquire additional assets, or reposition their investment strategy.

Commercial real estate markets change.

Values change.

Opportunities change.

The owners who stay informed are generally the ones who make the best decisions.

More Than Just a Number

Our Property Value Growth reports aren’t intended to encourage owners to sell.

In fact, many recipients have no intention of selling at all.

The purpose is to provide insight.

When you understand what your building is worth today, you gain a clearer picture of your financial position and the opportunities available to you moving forward.

After all, you wouldn’t ignore the value of your stock portfolio for five years.

Why ignore the value of one of your largest assets?

Our Commitment to Property Owners

For more than 35 years, Johnston Pacific Commercial Real Estate has helped South Orange County property owners maximize the value of their investments.

The annual Property Value Growth report is simply one way we help our clients stay informed about their assets and the market around them.

If you haven’t received a recent valuation update, or if you’re curious about how your property’s value has changed since you purchased it, we’d be happy to prepare a confidential analysis.

You may be surprised by what your building is worth today.

And that’s a phone call we always enjoy making.

Don’t hesitate to reach out, 949-366-2020

One of the most impactful changes is the new ability to “couple” SBA 7(a) and SBA 504 financing together.

As of May 2026, the SBA has officially increased the combined SBA 7(a) and SBA 504 lending limit to $10 million, effectively doubling previous cumulative borrowing capacity. According to the latest lending update, the current SBA 504 rate is approximately 5.95%, while the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate is 4.59%.

Here’s why that matters:

Previously, many borrowers would max out their SBA eligibility after a single large transaction.

Under the new structure, qualified borrowers may now access:
• Up to $5 million through the SBA 7(a) program
• PLUS up to $5 million through the SBA 504 program
• For a combined total of $10 million in SBA-backed financing

The SBA is also decoupling certain 7(a) balances from the 504 program, allowing businesses to leverage both loan products more strategically for expansion, equipment purchases, real estate acquisitions and working capital.

This creates substantial new opportunities for:
Manufacturers
Medical & life science companies
Aerospace & defense contractors
Logistics and distribution companies
Multi-location operators
Commercial real estate investors

For growing businesses, this may now make purchasing a facility far more achievable than many previously believed possible.

For commercial property owners, this potentially expands the buyer pool significantly,  especially for owner-user industrial and office properties.

At Johnston Pacific Commercial Real Estate, we are already seeing increased activity from companies evaluating expansion plans, acquisitions and long-term ownership opportunities throughout South Orange County’s industrial market.

With inventory remaining tight and financing capacity increasing, we believe this could become a major catalyst for owner-user demand in the months ahead.

If you would like to discuss:
• Owner-user acquisition opportunities
• Current market values
• Off-market industrial properties
• Expansion strategies
• Sale-leaseback structures
• Investment acquisitions

Access to capital creates opportunity, and this latest SBA change could be one of the most impactful financing shifts commercial real estate has seen in years.

Johnston Pacific Commercial Real Estate, Inc.
Experts at finding your perfect commercial property investment.

Client: Private Owner (Auto Repair Operator)

Brokerage: Johnston Pacific Commercial Real Estate

Property: 26911 Vista Terrace, Lake Forest

Transaction: Off-Market Style Marketing, Yard Industrial Sale

The Challenge

The owner of a long-standing auto mechanic’s shop decided it was time to exit the business but needed to do so quietly. He wanted to market the property without alerting employees or disrupting day-to-day operations. Adding to the complexity, the building included a fenced yard, a highly desirable feature for industrial users, but one that can quickly draw attention if openly advertised.

This required a strategy that balanced confidentiality with maximum buyer exposure.

Johnston Pacific’s Approach

Rather than rely on traditional online marketing that could expose the sale, our team executed a boots-on-the-ground outreach campaign. We spent hours going door to door across South Orange County, directly contacting business owners and users who would value a yard-equipped industrial property.

This hyper-targeted approach allowed us to:

• Protect the seller’s privacy
• Reach qualified users discreetly
• Create market awareness without public visibility
• Generate interest through personal relationships and local market knowledge

Execution & Results

As momentum was built through private outreach, an outside broker ultimately introduced the right buyer. Because Johnston Pacific had already created awareness and demand for the opportunity, the buyer stepped into a well-positioned transaction.

The sale successfully closed, and the owner exited the business on his terms, walking away with nearly $1.5 million from the sale.

The Outcome

This transaction highlights Johnston Pacific’s ability to adapt marketing strategies to meet sensitive client needs. Through discretion, persistence, and local market engagement, we were able to protect the client’s confidentiality while still driving a successful sale.

Conclusion

The sale of 26911 Vista Terrace demonstrates that effective brokerage isn’t always about broad exposure, it’s about the right exposure. By respecting the owner’s need for privacy and executing a highly targeted outreach plan, Johnston Pacific helped deliver a life-changing financial outcome. When clients trust us with complex situations, we bring creativity, hustle, and strategy to ensure the job gets done.

1. Industrial Market Fundamentals: Normalization, Not Collapse

Industrial real estate across the U.S. is no longer in the white-hot growth phase of the early 2020s. Vacancy nationally has risen from historic lows and is generally stabilizing in the mid-6% to low-7% range, a trend supported by major research firms.

In Southern California, industrial vacancy rates have increased but remain below peak levels seen elsewhere. Negative net absorption in Orange County has been reported, though some metrics point toward stabilization rather than deterioration.

Leasing activity has shifted: tenants prioritize functional, modern logistics space over older, less efficient properties, a dynamic that preserves underwriting strength for quality assets.

Implication for Lending:
Lenders are pricing for normalization, not distress. Underwriting models increasingly emphasize realistic stabilization assumptions and tenant quality, especially for properties with strong logistics demand.

2. Credit Environment: Tighter Underwriting, Spreads Narrowing

Commercial lending standards remain selective but have softened modestly for industrial product relative to other CRE sectors. Institutional financing spreads for industrial loans have narrowed in early 2026, though they are still above the extremely low spreads seen earlier in the decade.

Traditional banks remain cautious in underwriting, often requiring:

• Strong debt service coverage ratios (DSCR)
• Lower loan-to-value (LTV) ratios
• Stable rent and occupancy projections

Community banks and credit unions still play a role for smaller industrial assets — particularly mid-bay and small-bay properties — albeit with conservative terms.

Implication for Lending:
Selective expansion of credit for stabilized, core industrial assets is evident, while construction and speculative financing still face tighter scrutiny due to rate-linked risk and uncertainty.

3. Alternate Capital Sources: Private Credit and Non-Bank Lenders

In a world where some traditional banks remain conservative, private credit, life companies, and specialty finance providers are stepping in to fund transitional, value-add, or non-stabilized industrial projects. These lenders typically offer:

• Higher loan-to-cost (LTC) or loan-to-value (LTV) structures
• Short-term bridge financing
• Flexible underwriting for redevelopment or repositioning plays

However, these come at higher pricing and often shorter terms, so sponsors must match financing type to strategy.

Implication for Lending:
Private capital fills gaps but demands sharper risk justification and often favors projects with clear operational value or strong exit paths.

4. Pricing, Rates, and Spread Dynamics

Interest rates remain elevated relative to the decade’s historical lows. While the Federal Reserve’s pivot in 2025 eased pressure modestly, borrowing costs for CRE remain elevated enough to factor meaningfully into underwriting.

Typical pricing for quality industrial deals often reflects spreads that embed term risk, tenant credit, and submarket strength. This dynamic necessitates:

• Realistic rental growth assumptions
• Conservative cap rate projections
• Pricing that accounts for rate uncertainty over longer loan tenors

Implication for Lending:
Pricing discipline persists, lenders are willing to lend but want terms that align risk with expected cash flow fundamentals.

5. Local Orange County Indicators and Investment Activity

Locally, Orange County industrial transaction activity underscores ongoing demand. Recent land and portfolio transactions show investors still confident in long-term fundamentals despite broader market normalization:

• Recent industrial site acquisition and redevelopment plans in Anaheim highlight continued interest in supply-constrained infill assets.
• Fully leased industrial portfolios are trading, showing that stabilized cash flows remain attractive.

Meanwhile, regional forecasts suggest that broader CRE financing clarity is improving as markets transition from uncertainty to measured stabilization.

Implication for Lending:
Orange County’s inherent supply constraints and logistics demand give lenders confidence in quality industrial deals, even as underwriting standards remain deliberate.

6. What to Expect Through Late 2026

Looking ahead through the rest of 2026, several themes are likely to shape the commercial industrial lending landscape in Orange County:

• Disciplined but consistent financing for quality assets with strong tenant credit and occupancy histories
• Continued importance of detailed underwriting focused on realistic lease-up and stabilization scenarios
• Ongoing role for private capital in transitional plays, value-add financing, and gap lending
• Cautious expansion of institutional banks into larger portfolios and build-to-core strategies as risk models adjust
• Focus on modernization and efficiency as occupiers and lenders both value functional industrial space

In essence, the lending market is not static — it is adapting to stabilization and select pockets of opportunity rather than reverting to aggressive growth or freeze.

Bottom Line

The 2026 industrial lending environment in Orange County continues to evolve. Capital remains available for quality, well-underwritten industrial assets, and traditional lenders are slowly expanding their comfort zones — particularly for stabilized properties with demonstrable tenant demand. At the same time, alternate capital sources provide strategic flexibility, though often at a cost.

For investors and developers, success hinges on strong underwriting narratives grounded in credible market fundamentals, realistic projections, and an understanding of both traditional and alternative financing channels.

Let Johnston Pacific’s 35 years of expertise work for you, give us a call today at 949-366-2020 to discuss your investment opportunities.

For investors and owner-users in Southern California, particularly Orange County’s industrial market, this data reinforces what seasoned professionals already know: well-located, functional industrial assets remain one of the most resilient and in-demand property types. At Johnston Pacific Commercial Real Estate, we see this trend playing out daily on the ground, supported by more than 35 years of experience in the South Orange County industrial market.

CRE Executives Are Leaning Back Into Growth

Deloitte’s survey gathered insights from hundreds of senior CRE executives worldwide, including CEOs, CFOs, and investment leaders overseeing portfolios valued at hundreds of millions—or billions—of dollars. The headline finding is clear: roughly three-quarters of respondents plan to increase their real estate investment allocations in 2026.

This shift marks a meaningful change from the cautious stance many investors adopted over the past two years. While challenges remain, executives now see pricing adjustments, motivated sellers, and long-term demand fundamentals as reasons to re-enter the market strategically rather than sit on the sidelines.

Why Industrial Real Estate Continues to Lead

Among all asset classes, industrial commercial real estate stands out as a top investment priority, both globally and locally. Deloitte’s findings echo a broader market reality: logistics, manufacturing, warehousing, and flex industrial properties are benefiting from structural demand drivers that extend far beyond short-term economic cycles.

Key drivers include:

• Continued reshoring and nearshoring of manufacturing
• E-commerce and last-mile delivery growth
• Supply chain reconfiguration
• Limited new industrial land availability in infill markets

In Orange County and South Orange County, these pressures are even more pronounced. Industrial inventory remains constrained, zoning is restrictive, and replacement costs continue to rise, factors that help support long-term asset value and rent stability.

At Johnston Pacific, we specialize exclusively in industrial and commercial properties, allowing us to guide clients toward buildings that align with operational needs, growth plans, and long-term investment objectives.

Executives Are Targeting Value, Not Just Volume

Deloitte’s survey also highlights a critical nuance: while investment activity is increasing, capital is being deployed more selectively. CRE leaders are prioritizing assets with strong fundamentals, functional layouts, and long-term relevance.

In practical terms, this means:

• Favoring well-located industrial buildings over speculative development
• Seeking properties with clear exit strategies
• Targeting markets with proven tenant demand

This disciplined approach mirrors how Johnston Pacific advises clients. Whether representing buyers, sellers, or owner-users, our focus is on matching the right building to the right business, not simply chasing deals.

Capital Is Evolving, And Opportunity Comes With It

One challenge noted in Deloitte’s findings is access to traditional financing. While banks remain cautious, many CRE executives are successfully navigating the environment through private capital, joint ventures, and alternative lending sources.

This evolving capital landscape creates opportunity, particularly for buyers who understand deal structure and timing. In Southern California, we’re seeing:

• Increased seller flexibility
• Creative financing solutions
• Off-market opportunities driven by relationships

With decades of local market experience, Johnston Pacific helps clients navigate capital constraints, negotiate effectively, and uncover opportunities others miss.

 Technology and Data Are Shaping Smarter CRE Decisions

Another theme from Deloitte’s survey is the growing role of technology and data-driven decision-making in commercial real estate investment. CRE executives are increasingly using analytics, market intelligence, and forecasting tools to guide acquisitions and leasing strategies.

At the local level, this reinforces the value of working with a brokerage that understands not just data—but how to interpret it within a specific submarket. Johnston Pacific combines market analytics with first-hand knowledge of:

• Tenant demand trends
• Real-time leasing velocity
• Submarket pricing nuances
• Building-specific functional advantages

Data may inform decisions, but local expertise closes deals.

What This Means for Industrial Investors in Orange County

Deloitte’s global survey confirms what we see firsthand: commercial real estate investment momentum is returning, and industrial properties remain at the center of that resurgence.

For Orange County investors, this means competition will increase, but so will opportunity. Those who move strategically, understand local conditions, and align with experienced advisors will be best positioned to succeed.

Whether you are:

• Acquiring industrial property
• Selling or repositioning an asset
• Leasing space for your business
• Planning a long-term investment strategy

Timing, insight, and execution matter more than ever.

Why Johnston Pacific

For over 35 years, Johnston Pacific Commercial Real Estate has been a trusted name in South Orange County industrial real estate. Our business is built on relationships, market knowledge, and a clear focus on delivering results for our clients.

As Deloitte’s survey makes clear, confidence is returning to commercial real estate, but success will favor those who act with precision and purpose.

If you’re considering an industrial real estate move in 2026, Johnston Pacific is here to help you navigate the market, identify opportunities, and secure the right property for your goals.

Contact Johnston Pacific Commercial Real Estate today at 949-366-2020 to discuss how today’s market trends can work in your favor.